Poker Odds Chart: Outs, Pot Odds and Draw Probabilities

A poker odds chart maps unseen cards (outs) to the mathematical probability of completing a draw on the turn or river. In Texas Hold’em, after the flop is dealt, a player sees 5 cards (2 hole cards in hand plus 3 flop cards on the board). From the player’s information set, 47 cards are unknown after the flop, assuming no additional cards have been exposed; some of those unknown cards sit in opponents’ hands rather than in the deck. The probability of hitting a specific out on the turn is calculated as outs divided by 47, while the cumulative probability of hitting an out by the river is calculated using the formula 1 - (1 - outs / 47) x (1 - outs / 46).

How to read this chart

Reading a poker odds table requires matching your count of active outs with the current street of play. Outs are any unseen cards that will improve your hand to a likely winner when dealt.

To calculate these probabilities, standard models assume a single player holding 2 hole cards alongside a 3-card flop. Because 5 cards are fully visible out of a standard 52-card deck, 47 cards are unknown from the player’s point of view. On the turn, 1 card has been dealt, leaving 46 unknown cards for the river card.

The percentages shown in the main table are draw-completion probabilities: the single-street chance (flop to turn) and the cumulative two-street chance (flop to river). They are not showdown equity. Completing a draw does not always win the hand, and a hand can sometimes win without completing that draw, so completion probability and equity are different quantities.

One cost caveat before comparing these numbers to a call: a flop call normally buys the right to see the turn only. If further betting remains on the turn, you cannot treat the two-street probability as what your money purchases. Use the two-card probability only when the cost of seeing both remaining cards is accounted for, such as when the call ends all betting or when you can reasonably expect to see the river without paying more.

Outs to percentage

The following reference table lists draw-completion percentages for draws ranging from 1 to 21 outs, assuming the set of outs stays fixed. The single-card probability reflects hitting an out on the turn (outs / 47). The two-card probability reflects hitting at least one out by the river (1 - (1 - outs / 47) x (1 - outs / 46)).

To calculate your own hand, use the odds calculator.

Pot odds to required equity

Pot odds express the ratio between the size of the pot and the cost of a call. Required equity represents the minimum percentage of the total pot a hand must win to break even on a call over time.

The required equity is determined by dividing the call amount by the final pot size after the call is included:

Required Equity = Call / (Pot After Bet + Call)

A “2:1” price indicates that the total pot after the opponent’s bet is twice the size of your required call. Using the standard pot odds formula, this table converts common pot odds ratios into exact required-equity thresholds:

For a heads-up call that ends all betting, compare showdown equity, including the appropriate share of ties, with the required equity from the pot odds. Draw-completion percentages are an input to that equity estimate, not a substitute for it. If further betting remains after your call, this comparison alone does not determine the profitability of the call. When immediate pot odds do not offer enough equity, players often evaluate potential future bets using implied odds.

Common draws and their outs

In standard Texas Hold’em scenarios, drawing hands typically fall into predictable categories based on the number of unseen improving cards. A player holds 2 hole cards, which combine with 3 board cards on the flop to create these standard drawing opportunities:

• Pocket Pair to a Set (2 outs): Holding a pocket pair (2 cards of equal rank in hand) leaves 2 unseen cards of that rank among the unknown cards. This draw yields a 4.3 percent chance on the turn and an 8.4 percent chance by the river.
• Gutshot Straight Draw (4 outs): An inside straight draw requires 1 specific card rank to complete a five-card sequence (4 cards of that rank remaining). This yields an 8.5 percent chance on the turn and a 16.5 percent chance by the river.
• Open-Ended Straight Draw (8 outs): Four consecutive cards (such as two in hand and two on the board) can be completed at either end by 2 different ranks (8 total cards remaining). This produces a 17.0 percent chance on the turn and a 31.5 percent chance by the river.
• Flush Draw (9 outs): Combining 2 cards of a single suit in hand with 2 cards of that same suit on the board leaves 9 remaining cards of that suit in the 47-card deck. A 9-out flush draw has a 19.1 percent probability on the turn and a 35.0 percent cumulative probability by the river.

The rule of 2 and 4, and where it breaks down

The Rule of 2 and 4 is a common mental shortcut used to estimate draw-completion probability quickly at the table without performing full division:

• To estimate single-street probability (flop to turn): Multiply the number of outs by 2.
• To estimate two-card probability (flop to river): Multiply the number of outs by 4.

While this shortcut provides a convenient approximation, the mathematical estimate is close but not exact. The discrepancy increases as the count of outs grows larger.

For example, a flush draw has 9 outs. Applying the multiplier gives a two-card estimate of 36 percent (9 x 4). However, the exact cumulative completion probability is 35.0 percent. The standard formula accounts for the fact that hitting an out on the turn reduces the number of unknown cards to 46, preventing simple addition of single-card probabilities.

Furthermore, this rule only estimates the probability of COMPLETING the draw; it does not guarantee winning the pot. A completed hand can still lose if an opponent holds or completes a stronger hand rank on the same board.

FAQ

What are outs in Texas Hold’em?

Outs are any unseen cards that will improve a player’s current hand rank to a stronger hand if dealt on subsequent streets.

How do I calculate pot odds?

Pot odds are calculated by comparing the amount of money currently in the pot (including the opponent’s bet) against the amount required to call. The required equity formula is Call divided by (Pot After Bet + Call).

Why does the Rule of 4 overestimate the completion probability with large out counts?

The Rule of 4 assumes linear scaling, but probability calculations for two cards must account for conditional outcomes (subtracting the probability of missing both streets). As outs increase, simple multiplication overstates the exact cumulative chance.

What is the difference between single-street and two-street probability?

Single-street probability measures the chance of hitting an out on the very next card (flop to turn). Two-street probability measures the cumulative chance of hitting an out on either the turn or the river combined.

Data Used

• Model assumption: two hole cards in hand plus three flop cards known; 47 cards unknown from the player’s information set on the flop (including cards in opponents’ hands) and 46 on the turn, assuming no exposed cards and a fixed set of outs.
• Single-card turn probability formula: outs / 47.
• Cumulative river probability formula: 1 - (1 - outs / 47) x (1 - outs / 46).
• Table data points: 1 out (2.1% turn, 4.3% river) through 21 outs (44.7% turn, 69.9% river), rounded to one decimal.
• Required equity formula: call / (pot after bet + call).
• Decision caveat: draw-completion percentages measure hitting outs, not showdown equity; a flop call normally buys the turn only, and the two-street comparison applies when seeing both cards costs nothing further.
• Pot odds conversions: 2:1 (33.3%), 3:1 (25.0%), 4:1 (20.0%), 5:1 (16.7%), 6:1 (14.3%), 8:1 (11.1%), 10:1 (9.1%).
• Draw definitions: Set (2 outs: 4.3% turn, 8.4% river), Gutshot (4 outs: 8.5% turn, 16.5% river), Open-ended straight draw (8 outs: 17.0% turn, 31.5% river), Flush draw (9 outs: 19.1% turn, 35.0% river).
• Rule of 2 and 4 shortcut comparison: 9 outs x 4 = 36 percent estimate vs. 35.0 percent exact completion probability.

Educational content for poker study. 18+.