Poker Outs to Probability: The Table Behind the Numbers
On the flop, 47 cards are still unknown, so one out is one chance in 47 on the next card. The first table fixes that denominator for each street; the second converts any out count from one to fifteen into a share. Street Known Cards Unseen Cards One-Card Outs Convert As Preflop 2 50 outs / 50 Flop 5 47 outs / 47 Turn 6 46 outs / 46 River 7 45 no cards remain Why the unseen count is not 52 minus five An opponent’s two hole cards are unknown to you, and an unknown card is still unseen even though it is no longer in the deck from their point of view. On the flop you know your two cards and the three board cards, which leaves 47 cards you cannot see. On the turn one more board card is known, leaving 46. The river row says “no cards remain” because no further card will be dealt, not because the unseen count has reached zero. ...