Poker Variance: What a Normal Downswing Actually Looks Like
Poker variance is the short-term spread of actual results around a player’s long-term expected value. In mathematical terms, player skill determines the underlying expected win rate, while variance determines the magnitude and duration of swings away from that expected average over brief periods. A skilled, long-term winning player can easily experience losing results for multiple consecutive weeks, whereas an inexperienced or losing player can experience profitable runs over a single session or several nights of play. ...