The matchup
In this fixed preflop all-in matchup, the pocket nines win more often. With Ah Kd against 9s 9c, the nines win 55.526% of boards and ace-king has about 44.3% equity, including half the ties. Ace-king is the classic “big cards” hand and pocket nines is the classic middle pair: one player holds Ah Kd (ace-king offsuit) and the other holds 9s 9c (pocket nines). Both hands go all-in before the flop: no other players are in the hand, no rake is taken, and no further betting is possible. Every figure below applies to exactly these four cards.
The result
The numbers come from an exhaustive enumeration, not a simulation. With the four known hole cards removed from a standard 52-card deck, all C(48,5) = 1,712,304 possible five-card boards were dealt out and each was evaluated with a standard best-five-card evaluator. Verified on 2026-11-05.
- Pocket nines win 950,774 boards: 55.526%
- Ace-king wins 756,208 boards: 44.163%
- Ties: 5,322 boards: 0.311%
- Ace-king equity, counting half of the ties: (756,208 + 5,322/2) / 1,712,304 = about 44.3%
Where ace-king’s wins come from
The best five-card hand that ace-king ends with, counted over all 756,208 winning boards:
- One pair (aces or kings): 286,560 boards
- Two pair: 295,348
- Three of a kind: 44,268
- Straight: 54,710
- Flush: 33,836
- Full house: 38,922
- Four of a kind: 2,390
- Straight flush, including royal flush: 174
Most of ace-king’s wins still come from pairing one of its big cards or making two pair; the premium straight and flush paths add a smaller share on top.
Where the nines’ wins come from
The best five-card hand that pocket nines ends with, counted over all 950,774 winning boards:
- One pair of nines: 200,640 boards
- Two pair: 344,496
- Three of a kind: 194,662
- Straight: 23,184
- Flush: 36,426
- Full house: 135,759
- Four of a kind: 15,177
- Straight flush: 430
The made pair shows its weight here: three of a kind alone accounts for 194,662 winning boards, and full houses for another 135,759, because the paired hole cards combine with paired and trip boards far more often.
Why the pair edges it out
Within this exact matchup, the pair of nines starts as a made hand, while ace-king needs the board to cooperate: it wins most boards where an ace or a king pairs, and loses most boards where neither big card helps and the nines still stand. That is a description of this enumeration only; this page does not compute any other matchup.
When the pot is split
Ties occur on 5,322 boards, and they do not require either player to “play the board”: a tie is any board where the two best five-card hands rank equally. Counting them by type:
- Both best hands are straights: 4,622 boards, the overwhelming majority of ties
- Full houses: 648
- Four of a kind: 30
- Straight flushes, non-royal: 20
- Royal flushes: 2
A five-card flush board deserves a special note. The four hole cards here cover all four suits (hearts, diamonds, spades, clubs). When the board makes a plain flush in any suit, the player who holds a card of that suit improves past the board flush and wins outright: ace-king owns hearts and diamonds through Ah and Kd, and the nines own spades and clubs through 9s and 9c. Plain flush boards therefore never tie in this matchup.
All 22 flush-family ties are boards that are themselves a five-card straight flush: 20 non-royal straight flushes plus 2 royal flushes (the spade royal and the club royal). For example, on 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s both players play the board’s six-high straight flush and neither nine can upgrade it. Suits never break a tie by themselves.
How to use this number
Equity becomes useful when you compare it with a price. Under the heads-up all-in model with no rake and no further betting, compare the share of the final pot you would need to break even with ace-king’s equity of about 44.3%, including half of tied pots.
Two cautions apply. First, this is a preflop all-in number: if more betting is possible on later streets, the decision must be redone with the new price, because calling one street is not the same as committing all chips. Second, the enumeration assumes exactly these two hands; against a range that mixes pairs, big aces and unpaired hands, ace-king’s overall equity is a different, blended number.
FAQ
Is ace-king a coin flip against pocket nines?
Close, but not quite. With Ah Kd against 9s 9c, the nines win 55.5% of all boards and ace-king wins 44.2%, with 0.3% of boards ending in a tie. Ace-king is the clear underdog in this fixed matchup.
Does it matter whether the ace-king is suited?
A little. A suited ace-king adds a flush path of its own (two suited hole cards needing three matching board cards), while the offsuit version needs four cards of one suit on the board. Fixed enumeration with Ah Kh against the same 9s 9c gives ace-king 812,065 winning boards, 893,973 losses and 6,266 ties, equity about 47.6%: the gap narrows, but the pair of nines stays the favorite.
Can ace-king win without pairing the board?
Yes. On Qs Jd Tc 4h 2c, ace-king makes an ace-high straight (Ah Kd Qs Jd Tc) while the nines hold only a pair, so ace-king wins outright without pairing. On a plain five-heart board without a straight flush, Ah lifts ace-king to an ace-high flush above the board flush. Most of its wins still come from pairing the ace or the king, or making two pair.
When is the pot split?
When both hands’ best five cards rank equally, which does not require playing the board. Here ties come almost entirely from boards that complete a straight beating both one-pair holdings, plus rarer board-driven full houses, quads and straight flushes. The flush-family ties are exactly the 22 boards that are themselves a straight flush (20 non-royal plus 2 royal); a plain flush board never splits in this matchup, because the suited hole card always improves past it.
Sources
- Known cards: Ah Kd (ace-king offsuit) and 9s 9c (pocket nines); four distinct cards, none repeated.
- Method: exact enumeration of all C(48,5) = 1,712,304 five-card boards from the 48 unseen cards of a standard 52-card deck, evaluated with a standard best-five-card hand evaluator; verified 2026-11-05.
- Results: pocket nines win 950,774 boards (55.526%); ace-king wins 756,208 (44.163%); ties 5,322 (0.311%).
- Equity definition: expected share of the pot at showdown, including half of tied pots; ace-king equity = (756,208 + 5,322/2) / 1,712,304 = about 44.3%.
This comparison is one of many in our vs series; each page states its model and premises. For a quick check of any other matchup, open the poker odds calculator or the hand rankings chart.